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41 reviewsISBN 10: 020388969X
ISBN 13: 9780203889695
Author: Joachim I Krueger
This volume brings together a diverse group of authors who have been associated with Robyn Dawes over the years. The breadth of topics covered reflects Dawes’s wide-ranging impact on psychological theory and empirical practice. The two themes of rationality and social responsibility are well developed in the book. Dawes had always urged investigators to take seriously the question of how individuals can reconcile self-interest (i.e. rationality) with the collective good (i.e. social responsibility). The area of judgment and decision-making poses a similar challenge: here, rational judgment is the most responsible judgment because it minimizes errors. To attain rationality in this domain, individuals need to accept the limitations of their own intuitions. This volume presents an up-to-date overview of how far psychological science has come in its struggle to reconcile what is true with what is good. Each chapter is a stimulus for new research and a reminder not to forget the hard-won lessons of the past – in particular, those taught by Robyn Dawes.
1 A PSYCHOLOGIST BETWEEN LOGOS AND ETHOS
REFERENCES
2 THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY AND THE COIN’S MEMORY
EXPERIMENT 1
Method
Materials
Results
EXPERIMENT 2
Method
Materials
Design
Results
EXPERIMENT 3
Method
Materials
Design
Results
EXPERIMENT 4
Method
Materials
Design
Results
EXPERIMENT 5
Method
Materials
Design
Results
OVERALL CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
3 BEING AN ADVOCATE FOR LINEAR MODELS OF JUDGMENT IS NOT AN EASY LIFE
BRIEF POLITICAL INTERLUDE
THE SAGA RESUMES
THE BIG EVENT
LINEAR MODELS IN MEDICINE
WHY THE RESISTANCE?
REFERENCES
4 WHAT MAKES IMPROPER LINEAR MODELS TICK?
IMPROPER LINEAR MODELS
SOCIAL PREDICTIONS AND ILL CONDITIONING
IMPROPER LINEAR MODELS AS SHRINKAGE ESTIMATORS
CONDITIONS FAVORING IMPROPER MODELS
DISCUSSION
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
NOTES
5 WHY META–SCIENCE SHOULD BE IRRESISTIBLE TO DECISION RESEARCHERS
FOREWORD AND DEDICATION: IN HONOR OF ROBYN DAWES
APPRAISING PERFORMANCE ON A COMPLEX JUDGMENT TASK
Characteristics of Judgments to Be Appraised: 10 Parameters That Combine to Create Considerable Complexity and Cognitive Strain
The Difficulty of the Appraisal Task
THEORY EVALUATION AS AN EXEMPLAR OF THE NEED FOR META–SCIENCE
THEORY EVALUATION AS AN EXEMPLAR FOR THE STUDY OF SCIENTIFIC JUDGMENT AND THE NEED FOR META–SCIENCE
A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO META–SCIENCE
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
REFERENCES
NOTES
6 THE ROBUST BEAUTY OF SIMPLE ASSOCIATIONS
SELF–PERCEPTION AND ENHANCEMENT
SOCIAL PROJECTION
SOCIAL CATEGORIZATION AND STEREOTYPING
INGROUP FAVORITISM
EMERGENT PROPERTIES?
REFERENCES
NOTES
7 WHEN IT IS RATIONAL FOR THE MAJORITY TO BELIEVE THAT THEY ARE BETTER THAN AVERAGE
BETTER–THAN–AVERAGE EFFECTS
NORMATIVE EXPLANATIONS
EXPERIMENT 1: RELATIVE PROBABILITIES
Method
Results and Discussion
EXPERIMENT 2: THE TRIVIA QUIZ
Method
Results and Discussion
EXPERIMENT 3: THE DATES TEST (MPS)
Method
Results and Discussion
GENERAL DISCUSSION
THE NORMATIVE QUESTION
FALSE CONSENSUS?
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
NOTES
8 WISHFUL THINKING IN PREDICTING WORLD CUP RESULTS
STUDY 1
Method
Results
Discussion
STUDY 2
Method
Results
Discussion
POSTSCRIPT
REFERENCES
NOTES
9 HOW EXPECTATIONS AFFECT BEHAVIOR
THE ULTIMATUM GAME
SOCIAL PREFERENCES
NORMS MATTER
VARIATIONS ON THE ULTIMATUM GAME
Ultimatum Game With Asymmetric Information and Payoffs
Ultimatum Game with Different Alternatives
Ultimatum Game With Framing
Dictators With Uncertainty
APPENDIX 9.1: CONDITIONS FOR A SOCIAL NORM TO EXIST
REFERENCES
NOTES
10 DEPERSONALIZED TRUST AND INGROUP COOPERATION
INGROUP EXPECTANCIES AND TRUST
IS TRUST NECESSARY FOR INGROUP COOPERATION?
Ingroup Cooperation as Heuristic Thinking
Projection of the Self to the Ingroup
Ingroup Cooperation as Goal Transformation
ARE OUTGROUPS NECESSARY FOR INGROUP COOPERATION?
SUMMARY
REFERENCES
NOTES
11 MUST GOOD GUYS FINISH LAST?
REFERENCES
12 WOMEN’S BELIEFS ABOUT BREAST CANCER RISK FACTORS: A MENTAL MODELS APPROACH
DECISION–MAKING NEEDS
THE MENTAL MODELS APPROACH
AN EXPERT MODEL OF CANCER RISK FACTORS
Interview Method
Respondents
Procedure
Data Analysis
Results
The Aggregate Mental Model
DISCUSSION
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
13 GROUPS AND THE EVOLUTION OF GOOD STORIES AND GOOD CHOICES
TRAPPED IN SOCIAL LIFE
From Selfish Genes to Repeated Assemblies
Core Configurations
Epistemic Projects, Social Identity, and Imaginaries
TELLING HUMAN STORIES
Evolutionary Images
Conceptual Structures for Human Origins
Thinking in Sociality
INVENTING HUMAN NATURE
The Individual Story: Rudolf Höss and Cold Logic
The Collective Story: The Danish Rescuers
CONCLUSION: GOOD STORIES AND GOOD CHOICES
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
NOTES
APPENDIX 1 THE ROBUST BEAUTY OF IMPROPER LINEAR MODELS IN DECISION MAKING
OBJECTIONS TO USING LINEAR MODELS
Technical
Psychological
Ethical
REFERENCE NOTES
REFERENCE
NOTE
Footnotes
APPENDIX 2 BEHAVIOR, COMMUNICATION, AND ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT OTHER PEOPLE’S BEHAVIOR IN A COMMONS DILEMMA SITUATION*
EXPERIMENT 1
Method
Procedure
Results
Discussion
EXPERIMENT 2
Method
Procedure
Results
Discussion
REFERENCE NOTE 1
REFERENCES
NOTES
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Footnotes
APPENDIX 3 ROBYN M. DAWES’S FESTSCHRIFT REMARKS
APPENDIX 4 ROBYN M. DAWES’S BIOGRAPHY AND SELECTED WORK
SELECTED WORKS OF ROBYN M. DAWES
Books
Articles and Book Chapters
CONTRIBUTORS
Tags: Joachim I Krueger, Rationality, Responsibility