(Ebook) Probability Demystified by Allan G. Bluman ISBN 9780071445498, 9780071469999, 0071445498, 0071469990

(Ebook) Probability Demystified by Allan G. Bluman ISBN 9780071445498, 9780071469999, 0071445498, 0071469990

PrefaceProbability can be called the mathematics of chance. The theory of probabilityis unusual in the sense that we cannot predict with certainty the individualoutcome of a chance process such as flipping a coin or rolling a die (singularfor dice), but we can assign a number that corresponds to the probability ofgetting a particular outcome. For example, the probability of getting a headwhen a coin is tossed is 1/2 and the probability of getting a two when a singlefair die is rolled is 1/6.We can also predict with a certain amount of accuracy that when a coin istossed a large number of times, the ratio of the number of heads to the totalnumber of times the coin is tossed will be close to 1/2.Probability theory is, of course, used in gambling. Actually, mathematiciansbegan studying probability as a means to answer questions aboutgambling games. Besides gambling, probability theory is used in many otherareas such as insurance, investing, weather forecasting, genetics, and medicine,and in everyday life.What is this book about?First let me tell you what this book is not about:. This book is not a rigorous theoretical deductive mathematicalapproach to the concepts of probability.. This book is not a book on how to gamble.And most importantThis book is not a book on how to win at gambling!This book presents the basic concepts of probability in a simple,straightforward, easy-to-understand way. It does require, however, aknowledge of arithmetic (fractions, decimals, and percents) and a knowledgeof basic algebra (formulas, exponents, order of operations, etc.). If you needa review of these concepts, you can consult another of my books in thisseries entitled Pre-Algebra Demystified.This book can be used to gain a knowledge of the basic concepts ofprobability theory, either as a self-study guide or as a supplementarytextbook for those who are taking a course in probability or a course instatistics that has a section on probability.The basic concepts of probability are explained in the first two chapters.Then the addition and multiplication rules are explained. Followingthat, the concepts of odds and expectation are explained. The countingrules are explained in Chapter 6, and they are needed for the binomial andother probability distributions found in Chapters 7 and 8. The relationshipbetween probability and the normal distribution is presented in Chapter 9.Finally, a recent development, the Monte Carlo method of simulation, isexplained in Chapter 10. Chapter 11 explains how probability can be used ingame theory and Chapter 12 explains how probability is used in actuarialscience. Special material on Bayes’ Theorem is presented in the Appendixbecause this concept is somewhat more difficult than the other conceptspresented in this book.In addition to addressing the concepts of probability, each chapter endswith what is called a ‘‘Probability Sidelight.’’ These sections cover some ofthe historical aspects of the development of probability theory or somecommentary on how probability theory is used in gambling and everyday life.I have spent my entire career teaching mathematics at a level that moststudents can understand and appreciate. I have written this book with thesame objective in mind. Mathematical precision, in some cases, has beensacrificed in the interest of presenting probability theory in a simplified way.Good luck!Allan G. Bluman