(Ebook) Environmental Risk Analysis 1st Edition by Ian Lerche, Evan Paleologos ISBN 0071372660 9780071372664

(Ebook) Environmental Risk Analysis 1st Edition by Ian Lerche, Evan Paleologos ISBN 0071372660 9780071372664

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ISBN 10: 0071372660 
ISBN 13: 9780071372664
Author: Ian Lerche, Evan Paleologos

'This is probably the most comprehensive treatment of this subject that I have seen. The authors have presented an approach and concept that far surpasses anything currently available.' - Jeffrey Vincoli, CSP, CHCM *Examines problems such as transport, burial/storage, monitoring, and spillage - and tells how to overcome them *Provides tables, graphs, and formulas for risk analysis and risk management strategies *Explains complex statistical techniques in clear, basic terms

(Ebook) Environmental Risk Analysis 1st Table of contents:

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS: TRANSPORT, BURIAL, MONITORING, SPILLAGE, LEAKAGE,
1.1 TRANSPORT PROBLEMS
1.2 BURIAL/STORAGE PROBLEMS
1.3 MONITORING PROBLEMS
1.4 SPILLAGE PROBLEMS
1.5 LEAKAGE PROBLEMS
1.6 SUMMARY
CHAPTER 2 CONTRACTS AND DECISIONS
2.1 GENERAL DEVELOPMENT
2.2 PARAMETER UNCERTAINTIES
2.3 NUMERICAL EXAMPLE
2.4 DISCUSSION
APPENDIX 2A: SOME PROPERTIES OF A LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
2A.1 Exact Statements
2A.2 Approximate Statements
2A.3 Multiple-Parameter Distributions
CHAPTER 3 TRANSPORT AND BURIAL HAZARDS OF RADIOACTIVE WASTE
3.1 INTRODUCTION
3.2 RISK AND CATASTROPHE IN THE TRANSPORT OF RADIOACTIVE WASTE
3.3 STATISTICAL MEASURES
3.4 ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATE ACTIONS: LIMITED SPILL
3.5 ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATE ACTIONS: CATASTROPHIC SPILL
3.6 PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY EFFECTS
3.6.1 Means and Variances
3.6.2 Relative Importance
3.7 RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION OF UNCERTAIN PARAMETERS IN SUBSURFACE HYDROLOGY
3.7.1 Introduction
3.7.2 Physical Problem
3.7.3 Theoretical Framework
3.7.4 Results and Discussion
3.8 SUMMARY
APPENDIX 3A: APPROXIMATIONS FOR CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY
CHAPTER 4 UTILITY THEORY AND WORKING-INTEREST OPTIMIZATION IN A HAZARDOUS WASTE TRANSPORT AND BURIAL
4.1 INTRODUCTION
4.2 WORKING-INTEREST EVALUATION
4.2.1 Exponential Utility Function
4.2.2 Parabolic Utility Function
4.3 APPLICATIONS
4.4 SUMMARY
APPENDIX 4A: LIMITING EXPRESSIONS FOR CERTAINTY EQUIVALENT
APPENDIX 4B: PARABOLIC APPROXIMATION TO EXPONENTIAL UTILITY
CHAPTER 5 CATASTROPHIC EVENTS, INSURANCE, AND UNILATERAL REGULATORY CHANGES
5.1 INTRODUCTION
5.2 CATASTROPHIC LOSS IN EXPLORATION ASSESSMENTS
5.3 CATASTROPHIC LOSS AFTER OIL IS FOUND
5.4 INSURANCE FOR HYDROCARBON EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT RISKS
5.5 GENERAL CATASTROPHIC LOSS CONDITIONS
5.5.1 Mathematical Considerations
5.5.2 Numerical Illustration
5.6 INSURANCE COVERAGE AFTER OIL IS FOUND
5.6.1 General Considerations
5.6.2 Numerical Illustration
5.7 INSURING AGAINST CATASTROPHIC LOSS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTS
5.8 OPTIONING AGAINST POTENTIAL REGULATORY CHANGES
5.9 RISK RETENTION
5.9.1 Evaluation of Risk Reserve Fund
5.9.2 Projects Awarded at One Time Exposed to Liability L
5.9.3 Projects Awarded at Different Times Exposed to Liability L
5.9.4 Projects of Variable Magnitude Awarded at Different Times and Exposed to Liability L
5.9.5 Numerical Illustrations
5.10 SUMMARY
CHAPTER 6 LIMITING RISK USING FRACTIONAL WORKING INTEREST
6.1 INTRODUCTION
6.2 GENERAL METHODS
6.2.1 Cozzolino’s Formula
6.2.2 Hyperbolic Risk Aversion
6.3 NUMERICAL ILLUSTRATION
6.3.1 Results from Cozzolino’s Formula
6.3.2 Results from the Hyperbolic Formula
6.3.3 Comparison of Results
6.4 NEGATIVE EXPECTED VALUES
6.5 SUMMARY
CHAPTER 7 LIMITING RISK WITHIN A CONSORTIUM AND IN FOREIGN GOVERNMENT PROJECTS
7.1 INTRODUCTION
7.2 RAV ESTIMATES WITH UNCERTAINTIES
7.2.1 General Considerations
7.2.2 Numerical Illustrations
7.3 EVALUATION OF PARTICIPATION IN A CONSORTIUM OF COMPANIES
7.4 EVALUATION OF PARTICIPATION IN FOREIGN GOVERNMENT PROJECTS
7.5 SUMMARY
CHAPTER 8 CORPORATE INVOLVEMENT IN MULTIPLE ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS
8.1 INTRODUCTION
8.2 DETERMINISTIC PORTFOLIO BALANCING
8.2.1 Relative Importance
8.2.2 Profitability
8.2.3 Costs
8.3 BUDGET CONSTRAINTS
8.3.1 High Budget
8.3.2 Low Budget
8.4 FINDING THE BEST WORKING INTERESTS
8.4.1 The Parabolic RAV Formula
8.4.2 The Exponential RAV Formula
8.5 DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL ILLUSTRATIONS
8.5.1 A Budget of $20 million
8.5.2 A Budget of $11 million
8.5.3 A Budget of $4 million
8.6 PROBABILISTIC PORTFOLIO BALANCING
8.7 PROBABILISTIC NUMERICAL ILLUSTRATIONS
8.7.1 Variable Value
8.7.2 Variable Value and Cost
8.7.3 Variable Value, Cost, and Success Probability
8.7.4 Very Low Budget
8.7.5 Low to High Budget Comparison
8.8 COMPARISON OF PARABOLIC AND EXPONENTIAL RAV
8.8.1 Deterministic Results
8.8.2 Statistical Results
8.9 TRANSPORT AND BURIAL OF WASTES
8.10 MULTIPLE PROJECTS
8.11 EXPOSURE AND EXPENDITURE CONSTRAINTS
8.11.1 Corporate Exposure
8.11.2 Cost Expenditure
8.12 OPTIMAL WORKING INTEREST
8.13 PARABOLIC UTILITY FUNCTION
8.14 APPLICATION
8.15 SUMMARY
APPENDIX 8A: WEIGHTED RAV OPTIMIZATION
CHAPTER 9 APPORTIONMENT OF COST OVERRUNS TO HAZARDOUS WASTE PROJECTS
9.1 INTRODUCTION
9.2 PROJECT COSTS AND COST OVERRUNS
9.3 NUMERICAL ILLUSTRATIONS
9.3.1 Identical Projects
9.3.2 Unequal Projects
9.4 ARBITRARY NUMBERS OF PROJECTS
9.5 SUMMARY
CHAPTER 10 BAYESIAN UPDATING OF TOXIC LEAKAGE SCENARIOS
10.1 INTRODUCTION
10.2 THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS
10.3 GENERAL CONCEPTS OF BAYESIAN UPDATING
10.4 NUMERICAL ILLUSTRATION
10.4.1 Updating the Likelihood of a State Being Correct
10.4.2 Updating the Probability of Leakage
10.5 BAYESIAN DECISION CRITERIA
10.5.1 Optimal Expected Value Bayes Decision
10.5.2 Expected Opportunity Loss
10.5.3 Influence of the Length of the Observation Record on Decision Making
10.5.4 Influence of the Form of the Loss Function on Decision Making
10.6 SUMMARY
CHAPTER 11 MULTIPLE TRANSPORT OF HAZARDOUS MATERIAL: PROBABILITIES OF PROFITABILITY
11.1 INTRODUCTION
11.2 STATISTICAL MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL TRANSPORT TRIPS
11.2.1 Statistics for a Single Event
11.2.2 Statistics for Multiple Events
11.2.3 Bayesian Updating of Probabilities
11.2.4 Residual Trips and Probability Updating
11.3 BUDGET BUYOUT CONSIDERATIONS
11.4 NUMERICAL ILLUSTRATIONS
11.4.1 Multiple Transport Before a Catastrophe Occurs
11.4.2 Ship Disaster and Probability Updating
11.4.3 Buyout Price and Minimum Acceptable Chance
11.5 SUMMARY
CHAPTER 12 MAXIMIZING PROFIT FOR A TOXIC WASTE SITE MONITORING SYSTEM
12.1 INTRODUCTION
12.2 SCIENTIFIC CONSIDERATIONS
12.3 FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS
12.4 NUMERICAL ILLUSTRATION
12.5 SUMMARY
CHAPTER 13 OPTION PAYMENTS FOR FUTURE INFORMATION
13.1 INTRODUCTION
13.2 MAXIMUM OPTION PAYMENTS
13.2.1 Mean Value Assessment of Option Costs
13.2.2 Probabilistic Assessment of Option Costs
13.3 NUMERICAL ILLUSTRATIONS
13.3.1 Mean Value Assessment of Option Costs
13.3.2 Probabilistic Assessment of Option Costs
13.4 SUMMARY
CHAPTER 14 THE WORTH OF RESOLVING UNCERTAINTY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTS
14.1 INTRODUCTION
14.2 REPRESENTATIONS OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
14.3 APPLICATION TO THE QUESTION: IS VALUE ADDED?
14.4 SUMMARY
CHAPTER 15 SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY IN ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS: MODELS AND DATA
15.1 INTRODUCTION
15.2 CONTINUOUS MEASUREMENTS OF HYDRAULIC HEAD
15.2.1 Weighting Factors
15.2.2 Parameter Determination
15.2.3 Illustrative Example
15.2.4 Spatial Changes and Partitions
15.3 DISCRETE MEASUREMENTS OF HYDRAULIC HEAD
15.4 STOCHASTIC DETERMINATIONS
15.4.1 General Considerations
15.4.2 Parameter Determination
15.4.3 Weighting Factors
15.4.4 Numerical Illustration
15.5 AVERAGING MEASURES FOR HYDRODYNAMIC PROBLEMS
15.5.1 Specific Hydrodynamic Flow Model
15.5.2 Discussion
15.6 SUMMARY
APPENDIX 15A: GENERAL DEVELOPMENT OF PROCEDURES FOR N MODELS
15A.1 Continuous, Perfect Measurements
15A.2 Discrete, Perfect Data
15A.3 Stochastic Measurements
APPENDIX 15B: INDIVIDUAL PARAMETER DETERMINATION PROCEDURE
APPENDIX 15C: MEASURES OF MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL MISMATCH
CHAPTER 16 HUMAN, WATER, CHEMICAL, BIOLOGIC, AND RADIOACTIVE RISKS
16.1 INTRODUCTION
16.2 NATURAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS
16.3 ANTHROPOGENIC ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS
16.3.1 Examples of Anthropogenic Environmental Problems
16.3.2 Resources and Environmental Issues
16.4 REMEDIATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS

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