(Ebook) Bayesian Statistics The Fun Way: Understanding Statistics And Probability With Star Wars, Lego, And Rubber Ducks by Will Kurt ISBN 9781593279561, 1593279566

(Ebook) Bayesian Statistics The Fun Way: Understanding Statistics And Probability With Star Wars, Lego, And Rubber Ducks by Will Kurt ISBN 9781593279561, 1593279566

Virtually everything in life is, to someextent, uncertain. This may seem like a bitof an exaggeration, but to see the truth ofit you can try a quick experiment. At the startof the day, write down something you think will hap-pen in the next half-hour, hour, three hours, and sixhours. Then see how many of these things happenexactly like you imagined. You’ll quickly realize thatyour day is full of uncertainties. Even something aspredictable as “I will brush my teeth” or “I’ll have acup of coffee” may not, for some reason or another,happen as you expect.For most of the uncertainties in life, we’re able to get by quite well byplanning our day. For example, even though traffic might make your morn-ing commute longer than usual, you can make a pretty good estimate aboutwhat time you need to leave home in order to get to work on time. If youhave a super-important morning meeting, you might leave earlier to allowfor delays. We all have an innate sense of how to deal with uncertain situa-tions and reason about uncertainty. When you think this way, you’re start-ing to think probabilistically.Brief ContentsContents in DetailAcknowledgmentsIntroductionPart I: Introduction to ProbabilityChapter 1: Bayesian Thinking and Everyday ReasoningChapter 2: Measuring UncertaintyChapter 3: The Logic of UncertaintyChapter 4: Creating a Binomial Probability DistributionChapter 5: The Beta DistributionPart II: Bayesian Probability and Prior ProbabilitiesChapter 6: Conditional ProbabilityChapter 7: Bayes’ Theorem with LEGOChapter 8: The Prior, Likelihood, and Posterior of Bayes’ TheoremChapter 9: Bayesian Priors and Working with Probability DistributionsPart III: Parameter EstimationChapter 10: Introduction to Averaging and Parameter EstimationChapter 11: Measuring the Spread of Our DataChapter 12: The Normal DistributionChapter 13: Tools of Parameter Estimation: The PDF, CDF, and Quantile FunctionChapter 14: Parameter Estimation with Prior ProbabilitiesPart IV: Hypothesis Testing: The Heart of StatisticsChapter 15: From Parameter Estimation to Hypothesis Testing: Building a Bayesian A/B TestChapter 16: Introduction to the Bayes Factor and Posterior Odds: The Competition of IdeasChapter 17: Bayesian Reasoning in the Twilight ZoneChapter 18: When Data Doesn’t Convince YouChapter 19: From Hypothesis Testing to Parameter EstimationIndex