A wait perhaps worthwhile: the influence of China’s “cooling-off period” regulation on trends in divorce registration by Hao Dong instant download

A wait perhaps worthwhile: the influence of China’s “cooling-off period” regulation on trends in divorce registration by Hao Dong instant download

This study investigates the impact of the 30-day “cooling-off period” regulation on divorce registration trends in China. It sheds light on the policy’s influence on unobserved subjective factors—particularly impulsiveness—in divorce decision-making. The analysis draws on province–quarter-level data on divorce registrations from the Ministry of Civil Affairs (2018–2021), supplemented with information from the National Bureau of Statistics, China Judgments Online, and the Baidu Index. Employing policy evaluation methods, including event-study and difference-in-differences estimations, the findings indicate that the regulation substantially reduced divorces, by approximately 10,300–13,200 per province per quarter. On average, this corresponds to a decline of 33%–42% compared to the preceding three years. Furthermore, the effect is more pronounced in provinces with higher rates of remarriage among previously divorced couples, greater numbers of divorces among young couples, and increased internet searches related to the policy and divorce. These patterns highlight potential mechanisms underlying the regulation’s effectiveness.